Dear Bills Fans,
Hello friends. On a personal note, I’m so excited to be starting Bills coverage as a part of the Crowd Assist Podcast team. It’s only the most anticipated Bills season of my 25-year lifetime. Noooooot a big deal.
So here we are, writing about the NFL Draft. And I’ve got to tell you guys. I’ve looked at this draft from a lot of different perspectives. I’ve consumed the takes of Bills Twitter. I think I’ve literally seen EVERY mock draft combination possible. No, seriously.
This is one of the strangest Bills drafts I can ever remember. Don’t you agree? But you want to know why that is?
We’re just really damn good.
Look don’t get me wrong, there are always areas you can improve a football team. The Bills are not perfect. They have holes on their roster.
But take a deep breath with me here. Now take another one.
You ready?
This draft doesn’t matter.
Now listen, I know that sounds ridiculous but hear me out.
Like I said earlier I’ve looked at this a lot of ways like all Bills fans. We eat up the mock drafts, and love to hear even the slightest rumor out of One Bills Drive even though we know that’s an airtight ship.
We obsessed over the 17 draft visits and even more over the 13 who we didn’t hear about.
But it really doesn’t matter.
Remember what else I said up there?
WE’RE REALLY DAMN GOOD.
Brandon Beane has *mostly* delivered on his drafts so far. We can discuss misses and makes all day long, but overall no Bills fan would say they are unhappy with the talent he’s been able to accumulate through the draft during this process from 7-9 purgatory to Super Bowl Favorite.
The way I see it… no matter what we win.
Ultimately, the results of this draft could have a large positive impact but likely will not have a negative impact on this season.
Think about it, what are the Bills biggest holes right now? I think the first 3 positions that any fan would start with are cornerback, wide receiver and interior offensive line.
But either way… is there really any chance that those positions aren’t addressed within the first 4 rounds? And haven’t we found quality starters and role players in basically every round of the draft in the Beane era?
The way I see it, this draft is a game show. It’s “The Price Is Right” and Roger Goodell is the Bob Barker in some kind of nightmare universe.
The Bills are going to win prizes no matter what! But how big the prize is going to be depends on which door they want to look behind…
Door # 1 – Wide Reciever
Here are some realistic first-round options. In most mocks/simulations on (insert your favorite mock simulator), by pick 25 the following players are off the board.
Guys who are generally available at 25, but there’s a chance they could be gone.
Late 1st to 3rd Round Potential
This is the all gas, no brakes option. I would be shocked to see them trade up for a receiver UNLESS someone drops to 19 and Philadelphia has already drafted one of the top guys. Pittsburgh is likely to take Malik Willis if he drops to that spot, but if he is off the board they are a potential trade target. The key would be to get ahead of Green Bay, who is in the receiver market and New England who could really go in any direction.
Who would that be? Jameson Williams was a popular pick to slip to the Bills in early mocks, but he will probably be long gone. London, Olave and Wilson seem like they won’t make it past 19 depending on when Philadelphia decides to select a receiver.
So choose your fighter.
Burks is the physically imposing “big slot”.
Dotson has all the tools. Speed, route running and sticky hands. but lacks elite size. His hops help make up for that.
Calvin Austin is a jitterbug receiver with rockets attached to his feet.
Pickens is the 5-star college prospect who never quite put it together for some reason.
Skyy Moore might just be the best receiver in this class, but MAC stars can only get so much traction in a class like this.
David Bell beat out all of the other Big Ten receivers that we’ve already mentioned for Big Ten Reciever of the year.
John Metchie III is a first-round prospect. But since he is recovering from his torn ACL, he is going to end up a later-round steal.
Now imagine any one of those guys, on the field with Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis and Josh Allen throwing them the ball.
Now think about it again for a little while.
Sounds pretty ok to me.
Door # 2 – Cornerback
Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley JR will be long gone by 25. Could the Bills be uber aggressive and trade up if they love one of them? Sure. But I find it highly unlikely Beane will give up an asset for next year the more and more I think about it.
With the number of contracts they have coming up (Edmunds, Oliver, Knox, Singletary), the Bills will want as many cost-controlled assets as possible to keep roster flexibility.
So the popular names at 25 for a cornerback are (all prospect blurbs via NFLDraftBuzz.com):
- Trent McDuffie
- McDuffie doesn’t have the perfect size for the cornerback position when compared to others in the class such as Derek Stingley, however, in our opinion, his major negatives end there. He has elite speed and quickness combined with a natural feel for tight coverage who often blankets the opposing team’s top receiver with ease while being a solid tackler who isn’t afraid of contact. He also has for the most part avoided injuries despite being involved in a lot of action. We consider McDuffie to be an elite prospect who could quite easily become a lockdown corner at the next level and excel in both man and zone coverage. He’s likely going to hear his name called at the end of the first round, however, he’s worth a top 15 selection in the 2022 NFL Draft.
- Kaiir Elam
- There is no doubt that Elam does have elite athletic ability in terms of speed, quickness, and length – but these traits have often not always translated through into his playing style – and has been a little inconsistent overall. He is still regarded by most scouts as the number two CB in the class but we would be wary of using a super high pick on a player who has suffered from consistency and injury issues and thus regard him as far from a sure thing. Still, he’s worthy of a first-day pick and should be looked at as a boom-bust prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft.
- Andrew Booth Jr.
- Booth projects as a playmaker at the cornerback position who will likely struggle early on in his NFL career due to limited college experience. He must quickly improve his technique if he is going to compete in the NFL where you can’t survive on athleticism alone. Booth is a highly ranked corner, with most scouts giving him a first-round grade (Todd McShay ranks him as the 22nd best player overall). We think that’s and consider him more of a boom-bust prospect due to his undeveloped coverage skills and injury history. He’d be good value in the second round, but no higher.
But this note from Joe Buscaglia via The Athletic is a point I have also screamed to anyone within shouting distance regarding McBeane’s stance on cornerbacks.
If that’s not enough, it’s wise to look at Beane and McDermott’s history of working together. The duo has spent 10 drafts together — six with the Panthers and four with the Bills. In those 10 drafts, they have invested in a boundary cornerback pick in the first five rounds only three times. They have never selected a boundary cornerback in the first round. Only McDermott did that with White in 2017 in Buffalo while working as the de facto GM before the Bills hired Beane after that draft. And the corners Beane and McDermott have picked in the first five rounds — Josh Norman (fifth round, 2012), James Bradberry (second round, 2016) and Daryl Worley (third round, 2016) — have all been hits.
So the three above prospects all have major flaws that are keeping them from the top end of the draft. McDuffie has been mocked as high as 15 so maybe if he falls to the Bills, they could have him in a similar spot on their board. The other two feel more like 2nd round talents who have been thrust into the first round of mocks because corner is such a valuable position.
I’m not saying this would be a bad choice per se, I’m just saying
Door # 3 – Breece Hall
Before we even talk about the drama of picking a running back (GASP) in the first round, let’s bring in the experts to let everyone know why Hall is such a tantalizing name for the Bills at 25 as they are currently constructed.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper
Hall racked up 718 carries for 3,941 yards and 46 total touchdowns in his three college seasons, also adding 82 catches for 734 yards. He is a big back with good feet and excellent top-end speed for his size. He shows impressive contact balance and runs hard — he had the most broken tackles in the FBS over the past three seasons (194). He lacks lateral suddenness and is a bit rigid in and out of cuts. Hall is patient but almost to a fault at times, and we’d like to see him get downhill with more urgency and initial burst. He takes care of the football; he had just two fumbles on 800 offensive touches. He can be a nightmare to tackle in space and is a natural pass catcher with soft, reliable hands. In pass protection, he typically gets in good position and squares up versus oncoming rushers. Hall is a quality every-down back who is best suited for a gap scheme with his overly patient run style.
NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah
Hall is a big, smooth runner with outstanding patience and balance. He has a unique style — almost walking to the line of scrimmage before finding a crease, getting skinny and exploding through. He has outstanding contact balance, absorbing defenders and driving his feet for extra yards. He is elusive in space. He doesn’t possess elite top-end speed, but he still hits some home runs (SEE: first play from scrimmage vs. Kansas State). He is an outstanding weapon in the passing game as a clean route runner with exceptional hands. Check out his one-handed catch vs. Oklahoma. He is firm in pass protection, but has been late to identify blitzers at times. Overall, Hall has an ideal skill set for today’s game.
So for full disclosure, this isn’t my Bills debut. Last year, I advocated for Travis Etienne or Najee Harris. From last year’s article:
Rarely has Beane made the wrong decision during this process? So, if he’s enamored with one of these prospects, who are we to argue?
The reality is this team has brought the whole gang back to take another run at the Big Game this year. Last year, you would have found me yelling at anyone within earshot that this was the most complete roster in the NFL. Maybe not THE most talented or THE deepest, but certainly the most complete. I believe that remains true right now after bringing back so many key players into the fold for the 2021 season.
With that mindset going forward, I looked at this roster up and down from last year and asked myself…
“If the Bills had the opportunity to upgrade a position from the most complete roster in the league, what would be the biggest net gain?”
…
Most of us fans have already decided what we want from the Bills in the draft this year. The popular picks (EDGE, CB) are incredibly valuable. Those selections could be building blocks to sustain this roster for years to come and continue to build a contending team.
We know how much McDermott values defense. He has valued making sure that there is not a weak spot that teams can exploit on his defense. When there is, he addresses it.
And I would understand both of those selections and be happy with them because they are smart football moves. The talent that will be available could help make an impact this year and down the line for this franchise.
BUT.
We’re trying to win a Super Bowl. Not next year. Not in three years. THIS YEAR. And the missing piece to one of the most electrifying offenses in the NFL?
A dynamic running back who can affect the game by running and catching the ball. Imagine how much easier Josh Allen’s life would be if he gets Miles Sanders or Josh Jacobs production from one of these backs?
Or even Saquons.
That was BEFORE last year’s draft. It’s amazing to me how much of that remains true going into this year. This leads us to…
Door # 4 – the Mystery Box!
Big trade! Lineman! Safety! Trade up to the top 10! Trade back to the 3rd round! Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised Beane gave us a chaotic night after all. BUCKLE UP.
The NFL Draft used to be my Super Bowl. I’m 25 years old. This whole “The Bills are Good” thing is still pretty new to me. But the Draft brought hope. The Draft was the hope that there was potential for the Bills to be good.
I’ve been football obsessed for as long as I remember. Sports-obsessed really. (I’ve written articles on this site about the NFL, NBA, NHL, WWE, AEW, College Football and College Basketball. Maybe I need another hobby? Nah.)
I vividly remember drafting Willis McGahee because I vividly remember watching him get hurt against Ohio State. I was 5 years old at this time.
So the draft is always special to me because for 20 years it was the Bills’ Super Bowl in my head. We didn’t win actual games, but MAYBE we’d draft the guy to bring us over the hump.
This year’s draft is different and honestly in the best way possible. The Buffalo Bills, come on down, you are the next contestant on The Price is Right! No matter what happens and what the order of selections ends up, the Bills will be EVEN BETTER come Saturday night. And as Bills fans, we win either way. Surely, we will all be happy no matter WHO they select.
Right?
Your Friend,
Jake
P.S.
Here is my OFFICIAL Buffalo Bills 2022 NFL Mock Draft. Best Case Scenario IMO. Except for no punter 🙁
The Sports Desk can be reached at editorialtrainwrecksports@gmail.com
One Response
Great article and insight. Love the Dotson pick. Who can cover the 3D offense? (Diggs, Davis, and Dotson). Is going to be a wild night. Go Bills!