Our second Thursday Night Football game of the season is here — Packers vs. Commanders — Lambeau in primetime — and we’re locked in.
We’ve started the season right — closing Week 1 of this new NFL Season 9-6 overall, +2.97 units across all Best Bets. That’s a promising start for the season — and trust me, we’re just getting warm. I’m focusing more this year on making sure every single pick is tracked and transparent through these blogs and socials well before kickoff. Nothing hidden, no hindsight…and no flexing bets I hit that I didn’t share with you fine folks ahead of time. Win or lose, the entire record’s right there — and so far, we’re up.
We’ve seen the first wave of chaos from Week 1 — late covers, rookie breakouts, and some early statement wins. Now it’s Green Bay and Washington’s turn under the primetime lights. Two young, cornerstone QBs. Two aggressive, revamped defenses. One juicy betting slate.
I’ve crunched the numbers, stalked the market like a degenerate hawk, and circled three plays Thursday Night Football plays I’m scooping up in my talons to kick off Week 2.
Let’s keep the momentum alive — and cash in under the lights.
Green Bay Packers -3.5 vs. WSH (-102) – 1u
This line went up at -3 and was steamed back to -3.5 fast, with about 3:1 tickets on GB. The money’s more evenly divided, indicating sharp both ways — but the early action says Packers.
Green Bay just hammered Detroit 27–13, dictating the line of scrimmage. Jordan Love was sharp (16/22, 2 TDs), but not his full self yet, and the defense contributed 4 sacks.
Injuries are seemingly a wash: GB has some questionables but no serious losses, as long as Micah Parsons plays. Washington’s relatively healthy, with Jayden Daniels dropping from he injury report yesterday.
Models project GB to win 30–21, and cover at a 62% probability — decidedly above break-even. LaFleur is 39–12 at Lambeau, and short weeks favor the home team generally.
The talent gap, home advantage, and model support all favor Green Bay for the cover under the pressure of Thursday Night Football.
Jayden Daniels over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – 1u
Daniels ran 11 times for 68 yards in Week 1 and looked like the engine of Washington’s offense — outpacing both his RBs. With Green Bay’s pass rush dialed in, expect more scrambles and designed runs to keep drives alive.
Washington’s O-line had trouble in Week 1, and if the Packers get pressure again, Daniels will have to move. He cleared this number in 10 games last season and just did it again with 68 on the ground in Week 1. If GB plays from ahead, that only helps the volume.
At –114, we need ~54% hit rate. Models and usage trends put this in the 55–60% range — a solid edge. Even if Micah Parsons is active, he’s not expected to be 100%, which should keep Daniels’ lanes open.
Strong matchup for designed runs + scrambles. Unless This is a solid value over for what’s hyped up to be a great Thursday Night football game.
Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-111) – 1u
Love tossed 2 TDs in Week 1 and picked up right where he left off — now 9 of his last 14 (we’re not counting week 18 last year where he played less than half the snaps) to the over on this line, despite injuries.
Washington’s defense is solid, but I’m not putting too much stock into shutting down Russell Wilson last week. Their blitz-heavy approach could actually open up more scoring chances for Love, who thrives when attacking pressure.
At –115, this line implies ~53% odds. But given Love’s 64%+ hit rate over his last 14 eligible games, despite battleing injuries, that even a modest 60%+ true probability gives us a strong edge.
Love’s looking to find his rhythm, Green Bay’s offense looks strong, even without Watson, and these odds haven’t fully adjusted yet in my opinion.
We’re riding the Love train into Thursday Night Football, baby.
2025 NFL Best Bets Record: 9-6 +2.97 Units
WEEK 1 BEST BETS:
Cowboys +8.5 (-105) – 1u: WIN +0.95 Units
CeeDee Lamb Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – 1u: WIN +0.91 Units
Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+275) – 0.5u: LOSS -0.50 Units
George Pickens Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-105) – 1u: WIN +0.95 Units
Najee Harris Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-105) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Quentin Johnston Anytime Touchdown (+360) – 0.25u: WIN +0.90 Units
New Orleans Saints +6.5 vs. ARI (-110) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Giants/Commanders Under 45.5 (-108) – 1u: WIN +0.93 Units
Tank Bigsby Longest Rush Over 10.5 Yards (-112) – 1u: LOSS – 1 Units
Lamar Jackson Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts (+115) – 1u: WIN +1.15 Units
Buffalo Bills +1.5 vs. BAL (-110) – 1u: WIN +0.91 Units
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 vs. CHI (-112) – 1u: WIN +0.89 Units
Under 43.5 Point Total (-110) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Aaron Jones Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – 1u: WIN +0.88
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