It’ s beautiful day for the second full Sunday of Football this NFL Week 2. Wall-to-wall games. The board is live and we’re dialed.
Week 1 gave us real signals; now comes the fun part—pricing the overreactions. I’m leaning on updated projection model, deeper stats I like like pace and pass-rate tendencies, glaring mismatches, and verified money flow to isolate numbers that haven’t caught up yet.
Tight card, sharp edges, surgical plays.
Everything here is crisp, confident, and actionable. No noise, no “lean” theater—just plays I’m putting out there. Let’s make smart plays, grab value, and turn closing whistles into tickets folks.
Receipts*
Through Week 1 + TNF, my Best Bets are 11–7, +3.85 units. Promising start—let’s stay hot and get hotter.
Every wager is posted before kickoff on these Best Bet blogs and socials for full transparency.
Keon Coleman OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards (-111) – 1u
Our sweet baby boy Keon Coleman wasted no time announcing himself in Week 1 — 8 grabs, 11 targets, and 112 yards as a clear focal point of Buffalo’s passing attack. Coming off a big offseason where everyone from media to Josh Allen himself said Keon took that next step, it’s nice to see it with your own eyes.
This NFL Week 2 he draws a Jets secondary that just got exposed by faster, more jacked Keon Coleman & Calvin Austin III – and Keon is next in line.
The market agrees: sharps steamed the opening number (46.5) down to 43.5, giving us a friendlier window to attack the Over.
The math lines up too. At -111, the book is pricing this around 52.6% to cash, but with Coleman’s route share, target volume, and matchup edge, we project him closer to 60%. That’s a real edge — about +7.5% EV — and worth chasing, fandom aside.
Coleman’s usage is expected to be too strong, the matchup too soft, and the number too short. We’ll trust the volume and ride with the Over.
Hunter Henry OVER 3.5 Receptions (+101) – 1u
Henry was heavily involved in Week 1 with 8 targets, 4 catches, and playing over 90% of snaps and I expect that to continue in NFL Week 2. Sophmore QB Drake Maye clearly trusts him as the safety valve, and with Boutte popping up on the injury report this week, Henry should remain the focal point underneath.
Miami on the other hand, just got absolutely worked over by by a rookie TE in Tyler Warren – who put up 76 yards in his 1st NFL start on their pitiful defense. Shifting from -102 to +101, the line pretty much suggests a coin flip, but his true chance to clear 3.5 receptions looks closer to 60%. That’s nearly a 10% edge on a steady volume prop at plus money.
Henry’s usage and matchup make this Over a strong play at + money.
SEA vs. PIT OVER 40.5 (-110) – 1u
Both secondaries are depleted: Pittsburgh is without CB Joey Porter Jr. and S DeShon Elliott, while Seattle misses S Nick Emmanwori and likely CB Devon Witherspoon. That’s premium coverage missing on both sides. Weather is warm with light winds — ideal for passing.
Rodgers’ chucked 4 TDs in Week 1 and now faces a short-handed Seattle defense. The Seahawks counter with JSN and a dyanmic rushing duo against a thin PIT secondary that was jsut man handled by Justin Fields.
Market projections put this total closer to 43, and Pinnacle is hanging Over 40.5 with no sharp resistance. Public money leans Under, but our model gives a 55% chance this clears.
With weak coverage and clean conditions, Over 40.5 points has the type of value I love in an Over.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. CIN (-110) – 1u
Jacksonville’s defense played fast in Week 1, and Travis Etienne provided much needed balance on the ground. Cincinnati managed only 7 yards (lol yeah) in the second half last week and needed late breaks to pull out a win.
Public action leans Bengals, but books are holding at +3.5. That hook is key around a field goal — if it drops to +3, value shrinks.
Oh and Joe Sheisty is overrated. I’m a fan, but overrated. Also, Trevor Lawrence is ugly but good.
Bottom line: Jags +3.5 is the sharper side with defense, run game, and number on their side.
New Orleans Saints +3 vs. SF (-114) – 1u
Line swung from 49ers −7 to −3 after Brock Purdy was ruled out, giving us key value with the home dog. Mac Jones starting? Yeah, me likey.
New Orleans’ defense gets a favorable setup against a backup QB and a questionable Trent Williams to boot. Indoors, noise is neutralized, and the Saints can stay within range.
Public money leans 49ers, but books holding +3 shows resistance and this will dorp by the morning. Standard juice captures QB downgrade and push equity at the key number, with added value if the line drops to 2.5. Tbh I’d take Saints outright as long as they stay dogs.
Bottom line: +3 still holds value in a low-total game where every possession will most likely matters.
2025 NFL Best Bets Record: 11-7 +3.85 Units
WEEK 1 BEST BETS:
Cowboys +8.5 (-105) – 1u: WIN +0.95 Units
CeeDee Lamb Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – 1u: WIN +0.91 Units
Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+275) – 0.5u: LOSS -0.50 Units
George Pickens Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-105) – 1u: WIN +0.95 Units
Najee Harris Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-105) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Quentin Johnston Anytime Touchdown (+360) – 0.25u: WIN +0.90 Units
New Orleans Saints +6.5 vs. ARI (-110) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Giants/Commanders Under 45.5 (-108) – 1u: WIN +0.93 Units
Tank Bigsby Longest Rush Over 10.5 Yards (-112) – 1u: LOSS – 1 Units
Lamar Jackson Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts (+115) – 1u: WIN +1.15 Units
Buffalo Bills +1.5 vs. BAL (-110) – 1u: WIN +0.91 Units
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 vs. CHI (-112) – 1u: WIN +0.89 Units
Under 43.5 Point Total (-110) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Aaron Jones Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – 1u: WIN +0.88 Units
WEEK 2 BEST BETS:
Green Bay Packers -3.5 vs. WSH (-102) – 1u: WIN +0.98 Units
Jayden Daniels over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – 1u: LOSS -1 Units
Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-111) – 1u: WIN +0.90 Units
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