The first Monday Night Football of the season is here, and we’re rolling into it with momentum. After going 3-2 on Sunday’s Best Bets, we sit at 7-5 overall, +2.20 units through the opening weekend of NFL action. Not a bad start, but let’s finish strong.
We’ve seen what Week 1 has had to offer so far — the upsets, the statements, the sweaty ass covers — and now all eyes are on tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup between two of the most exciting young signal callers in the league.
I’ve dig dugged into the numbers, read the market like a crystal ball, and lined up the sharpest plays to keep this (baby) heater going.
It’s time to close out Week 1 of this NFL season with a bang.
Let’s dive into degeneracy, friends.
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 vs. CHI (-112) – 1u
Minnesota enters this Monday Night Football matchup as the more complete team, and it shows in the roster build.
Offensively, the return of Adam Thielen alongside the S-Tier Justin Jefferson gives Minnesota a reliable receiver duo, even with Jordan Addison suspended, which is more than enough to tilt matchups against Chicago’s banged up secondary.
Meanwhile, “rookie” QB J.J. McCarthy is about to get his introduction to the big leagues after a rookie year injured on the sidelines, and divisional defenses aren’t going to make that adjustment easy for the young signal caller.
Market signals back it up: despite balanced ticket splits, Minnesota has ticked in the right direction a couple of times now, showing sharp support on the favorites.
In what projects as a grind-it-out divisional game on Monday Night Football, the Vikings’ ability to finish drives through Jefferson and Hockenson gives them the edge to clear the short number.
*FULL DISCLSURE I AM A MICHIGAN MAN AND MIGHT BE BIASED IN ANY MATCHUP INVLVING J.J. MCCARTHY*
Under 43.5 Point Total (-110) – 1u
This has all the makings of a grinder.
Both defenses are currently ahead of their offenses, and that typically shows in Week 1 divisional openers. Brian Flores’ scheme thrives on disruption — simulated pressures, disguised blitzes, and timely drive-killing plays. That doesn’t fuel shootouts, it creates stalled possessions and forced punts.
Chicago is still adjusting under Ben Johnson, with a young quarterback (who can’t read I guess?) running a new system. Expect a balanced, conservative approach early, leaning on the ground game to keep mistakes in check.
Historically, divisional openers trend under as teams know each other’s tendencies and execution on offense isn’t crisp out of the gate.
The market already signaled agreement, trimming from 44.5 to 43.5, showing sharp action lined up with the under. With clean weather conditions removing the chance of fluky weather-driven scoring, this bet comes down to execution — and the expectation that defensive pressure dictates pace.
Everything points to a lower-scoring, field-position battle.
Aaron Jones Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – 1u
The track record backs it up: Jones cleared this number in 12 of 17 games last season, averaging 8 yards per reception.
With Chicago’s secondary banged up (Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon both questionable), expect coverage shells tilted toward limiting downfield shots — again encouraging dump-offs and designed screens. Perfect for Jones to take advantage of and find a hole down to exploit after a reception.
Projection models have Jones at 3–4 targets, landing in the 20–30 yard range, giving us a strong edge.
This is the type of line that can cash early on, and enjoy Monday Night Football with 1 less sweat.
2025 NFL Best Bets Record: 7-5 +2.20 Units
WEEK 1 BEST BETS:
Cowboys +8.5 (-105) – 1u: WIN +0.95 Units
CeeDee Lamb Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – 1u: WIN +0.91 Units
Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+275) – 0.5u: LOSS -0.50 Units
George Pickens Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-105) – 1u: WIN +0.95 Units
Najee Harris Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-105) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Quentin Johnston Anytime Touchdown (+360) – 0.25u: WIN +0.90 Units
New Orleans Saints +6.5 vs. ARI (-110) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Giants/Commanders Under 45.5 (-108) – 1u: WIN +0.93 Units
Tank Bigsby Longest Rush Over 10.5 Yards (-112) – 1u: LOSS – 1 Units
Lamar Jackson Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts (+115) – 1u: WIN +1.15 Units
Buffalo Bills +1.5 vs. BAL (-110) – 1u: WIN +0.91 Units
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