Written by Alex “MereKat” LeMere
FOLKS, the Big Game (am I allowed to say Super Bowl or will I get sued?) is finally here. The one time a year where both fair weather sports ball fans that want in on the fun and them grimiest of degenerate gamblers can all come together with one like-minded goal – to absolutely lace some units, hammer the books and fill our pockets with free money. It’s truly the best day of the year to sit back, eat way too many appetizers/drink way too many beers while making money enjoying the greatest sport on Earth’s pinnacle moment.
The stage couldn’t be any more set for a great matchup. Joe Brrr (aka Joey Franchise(aka Joey Franchise(aka Joe Shiesty))), after overcoming his knee exploding as a rookie, and certified menace Ja’Marr Chase defied all odds to get these Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) a chance at their first Super Bowl championship. Can’t beat that storyline right? Right…? Let me raise you one Matthew Stafford leading the LA Rams (12-5), who have mortgaged their future to build this roster, to the Super Bowl in their home stadium after wasting away in Detroit the last 12 seasons. STORYLINES BABY!
I can keep rambling on about how much money was bet on the Super Bowl last year (nearly $8 BILLION) and how much more that number’s going to be this year with the introduction of legal mobile gambling in so many new states, but I just want to get into these picks.
HERE. WE. GO.
THE “MAIN PLAY”:
*This will be the only longer explanation, don’t be scared we got a lot to cover*
Call me a ripped piece of paper folks because I am TORN on this play. The rational Dr. Jekyll side of me says the Rams are winning this game, while my chaotic inner Mr. Hyde heart wants to believe these Bengals can shock the world. And I hate to say it, because I always say it, but I think there’s definitely a lot of potential to find a good middle ground on some bets here. When I’m torn like this, I usually just run away from the public money but the public betting trends for the Super Bowl get so scuffed with the amount of wagers being placed and the ridiculous size of some (s/o Mattress Mack). Some books are reporting both heavy money and public action on the Bengals while others dropped the Rams to -3.5 for a bit to entice more action. You can’t trust any of that when it comes to the big one.
The reason I am so compelled to be the Bengals outside of the storylines, is this team’s ability to overcome every obstacle in front of them. Between the subpar offensive line play, lack of star power at important positions like CB and questions surrounding HC Zac Taylor it’s a shock they made it this far – but they’ve still earned it. Beating the #1 & #2 seeds in the AFC (Bills would’ve wiped the floor with them tbh) as huge underdogs was no easy feat…but I can’t ignore how unsustainable their run has been.
There’s a lot of things that seem like they’re about to come to a head. For starters, the Bengals (a team that had 13 INTs in 17 regular season games) have gotten 5 INTs the last 2 weeks. Impressive, until you realize 4 of them have come off of deflections, not something that you can replicate week in and week out. Speaking of the secondary, Awuzie, Hilton and (everyone’s favorite) Eli Apple have all been playing above their means and are bound to get humbled by a receiving corp as versatile and talented as the Rams.
And as much as I, and everyone, loves him – Joe Burrow ‘underperforming” against this Rams defense is something I’m prepared for. These last 2 weeks, Joe Brrr has struggled (2 TDs, 2 INTs) to produce at the elite level we want against McVay & Co. Stacking him up against an already very scary Ram’s defense that’s also the embodiment of a Fangio scheme, things aren’t too promising.
For the Rams, I keep talking about how everyone’s rooting for Burrow…but the same can probably be said for Stafford. He’s produced at a high level his whole career in the armpit of the NFL and the second he gets out he’s in a Super Bowl. He’s a super likable guy that’s easy to root for, leading a team fitting the flashiness of LA with the big name talent they have sprinkled throughout their entire depth chart – what’s not to like? Plus, there’s just no way Sean McVay will coach as poorly as he did in SBLIII and this is probably the best shot they’ll have at winning it all in this extremely tight window they’ve given themselves.
There’s another major factor here: MONEY. As much as I like to tell myself the NFL doesn’t always get their way either, I keep getting proved wrong time and time again by big bad Roger. What better way for the NFL to build up the pathetic LA fanbase into the goldmine the league wants? Winning a Super Bowl at home certainly wouldn’t hurt those efforts!
If there’s one thing that I’ve actually convinced myself of for tomorrow is that this game’s not going to end as a blowout. That’s why I brought up the possibility for a wide net to toss for a middle if you truly can’t pick a side but enough talking.
The play is IN.
LA Rams ML + Over 42.5 points (+110) 2 units
I truly think the Rams win this game but can’t bring myself to take the -4 spread even though I don’t hate it. The over 48.5 is looking like the public play in this one but how can you not bet on points galore on that #fastturf? We’ll tease it down a TD so we can root for points, because who doesn’t want points??? And if you like the Bengals, well here’s your middle: Bengals +10 + Over 42.5 (-110). If you like the Bengals then you should like that one and I may even toss it on top of it’s counterpart because I’m that sure Backdoor Burrow keeps this close in the second half.
Enough blabbering out of me folks – let’s fire away on some props, the real fun of Super Bowl Sunday.
Kendall Blanton Over 29.5 receiving yards (-110) 1 unit
The Rams offense will be utilizing their top tight end against a Bengals defense that allowed 97 receptions for 1,083 yards and 8 TDs to the position in the 2021 regular season. Tyler Higbee is out (knee) and Blanton is the man primed to takeover his role as TE1. After catching just 4 passes for 37 in the regular season, Blanton has stepped all the way up this offseason. Against the Bucs he had 2 catches for 18 yards and a score as the backup and then stepping up in the NFC championship for the injured Higbee, catching all 5 of his targets for 57 yards. I LOVE this play.
Joe Burrow Over 10.5 rushing yards (-125) 1.5 units
Sure, Joe Shiesty has only gone over this number 6 times in 19 attempts this season, but that just makes me even more drawn to it. It’s no secret the Bengals offensive line is not great and that the Rams pass rush is in fact, pretty great! Burrow, who was sacked 9 times against the Titans, adjusted his play against the Chiefs to avoid taking more negative plays and ran 5 times for 25 yards, taking just 1 sack. Joey B is going to be under duress in this game and I mean…it’s the Super Bowl. This is NOT the game you just go down or don’t try and make a play with your legs you might be afraid to in a regular season game. Joe Brrr gonna let it all hang out and this number is far too low.
Player To Record First Sack: Trey Hendrickson (+500) .25 unit
A bit of value here on a guy who had 14 regular season sacks and 2.5 so far this post season. Everyone will be attracted to a Rams player in this spot but you can’t ignore the immobility of Stafford and that the interior of LA’s line is NOT great. The Bengals have relied on big plays from their defense to get here and Hendrickson’s an elite player primed to make a splash…just hopefully early on.
Coin Toss Result: HEADS (-105)
Excuse my French but FUCK TAILS. There is only one reason for this play and my complete abandonment of “tails never fails”. This one’s for our sweet baby boy Josh.
TOUCHDOWN SCORERS:
Odell Beckham Jr. (+120) – OBJ has been lethal since joining the Rams. The receiver has 6 scores in 11 games with LA, but has been quiet this postseason. Who better to show up with a billion eyes on him than Odell?
Cam Akers (-110) – Tbh I might even sprinkle Akers first TD scorer at +750 for some real value. The kid came back miraculously from injury to help get his team to this point. He has the trust of his HC and is as close to 100% as he’ll be this season lol. Like OBJ, he hasn’t scored yet in these playoffs but should be trusted with an important role.
Joe Mixon (-105) – 13 regular season touchdowns and 2 so far in the playoffs, Mixon’s got a nose for the end zone and needs to be productive if the Bengals want to win. I expect this to maybe come as a receiving TD, where he’ll be most dangerous in this one (Over 24.5 receiving yards *eyes emoji*).
Kendall Blanton (+235) – I love his over on yards and think he’ll be an important part of the Rams’ offense, so how could I stay away at these odds? He’s already got one under his belt this postseason.
We’re through with the “serious” props we’re going rapid fire on the nitty gritty and dive DEEP into the darkest corners of the books folks. Tread lightly.
GATORADE COLOR: Red (+400) AND Blue (+450)
Since 2001, the color of Gatorade at Super Bowl games has only matched the team color scheme three times – 1x Pittsburgh Steelers/yellow and 2x Patriots/blue. I consider Yellow being the Rams color just because so Blue is clear and Red gatorade is the best so yeah. Easy money one way or another.
SUPER BOWL 56 WINNING MARGIN: Under 8.5 (-110)
I mean how many other ways can I say it?? MIDDLE, MIDDLE AND MIDDLE. I refuse to believe the Bengals don’t stay in this game.
TOTAL PLAYERS TO HAVE A PASS ATTEMPT: Over 2.5 (+155)
Shout to my boy Squilly Wonka for getting this play stuck in my head. It’s the Super Bowl, we’re going to see some weird shit. The Rams have gotten pass attempts from 2 players this year (Kupp & Hekker) while the Bengals have the rocket armed Tyler Boyd…and I cannot confirm this but I hear McPherson has a CANNON arm!
JERSEY NUMBER OF FIRST TD SCORER: Under 19.5 (-115)
Sure you’re getting a large pool of players with the over, but we’re taking the quality over quantity approach here. OBJ, Kupp, Van Jefferson, Stafford, Chase, Burrow…McPherson!?
WILL THERE BE AN OCTOPUS: Yes (+1200)
You simply do not want to be the guys who DIDN’T take this. I have no clue what this even means but YES. **UPDATE** So they are NOT talking about an actual octopus, but a player scoring the 2 point conversion AFTER they score a TD and idk we are still RIDING with this. I am not giving out hope we see an actual octopus in play at some point though.
BITCOIN PRICE WILL GO UP DURING SBLVI: Yes (-125)
There will 1000% be some sort of Bored Apes NFT propaganda displayed by an ad or celebrity that will probably boost the crypto market (I have no clue what I’m talking about, just makes sense to my dumb gambling brain).
Mary J. Blige WILL show cleavage during the SB LVI Halftime Show (-300)
Trust me on this one fellas, I NEVER take parlay fodder like this but I have done EXTENSIVE research into this particular prop and we are firing away! The model says 51 year old Mary J. Blige will not be shy with her attire this Super Bowl Sunday. LOCK.
WHAT WILL BE MORE: Joe burrow Pass attempts -1 (-115)
You can’t bet Super Bowl without taking at least one of the billion cross-sport props offered and me thinks me found a winner. Burrow has averaged 32.5 pass attempts in the regular season but over 36 these playoffs. If the Bengals will win it’ll be behind Burrow’s arm and if they go into the second half down like I expect, he’ll be tossing that thang all over. KAT has averaged 33.6 points + rebounds his last 5 games (33.8 regular season). This is all Joe Brrr.
That’ll do it for now folks! I will be adding plays as lines change and I am drawn to more ridiculous props we shouldn’t be taking (responsibly) so make sure to follow me on Twitter @MereKatKat as well as @DegenerateZone for all the updates you need! Also, I explain a lot of these in more depth and provide even more picks on “Not Another CFB Pod” with my good friend @PotatoGobbler.
May the gambling gods be in our favor.
Gambling problem? Don’t listen to me and call 1-800-GAMBLER or something like that.
All odds are from the evening of Saturday February 1st, 2022 and are sure to fluctuate.