Written By Alex “MereKat” LeMere
How we doing folks? It’s a beautiful day to win all our bets! Personally, I’m all over basketball today with a full NBA slate and some Elite Eight action so I’m ready to have a Saturday. And I’m feeling productive (rare) so I figured why not do a little writeup on my picks for the day?
Coming off a much-needed 3-0 sweep last night, I’m not sure if I actually love the board this much or that little confidence boost is taking hold but I’m FIRING AWAY (responsibly) today. Hell, maybe I’ll start doing these writeups more if today goes well (if we go negative I am deleting this blog from existence – never happened).
ELITE EIGHT PLAYS:
#5 Houston -2.5 (-110) vs. #2 Villanova 1.5 units
It might seem crazy to some a fifth-seeded Houston is favored against a two-seed like Villanova, who has 2 NCAA championships under their belt the last 6 years, in the Elite Eight but here we are, and here I am taking them!
Nova is a great team, and I have a solid future on them, but me fading them here is more a testament to how good Houston has looked this tournament. They’ve beaten their first 3 opponents, including one-seed Arizona and four-seed Illinois, by 14, 15 and 12 behind an elite balance of offense and defense. The Cougars are the only team in this Elite Eight that ranks top ten in both KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re on fire right now, covering the spread in 9 of their last 10 and I don’t think a shallow Nova team has enough to keep up in the second half with this Houston squad.
Early reports show 62% of the action and 87% of the money coming in on Houston (via Action Network) which is promising. And in the end, Villanova doesn’t really have that trump card you look for in the tournament to sway you in a matchup like this. As it stands, I think the Cougs pull away with this one down the stretch.
#4. Arkansas +4 (-108) vs. #2. Duke 1 unit
This play is a lot less about the numbers and a lot more about one man – THE MUSS BUS. Sure, I believe the refs will do anything to help a withering Coach K and a desperate Duke team advance, but I refuse to believe these Hogs don’t keep it close. Arkansas, after beating odds-on champion favorite Gonzaga in impressive fashion, is giving off major team of destiny vibes. Will that be enough to finally put Coach K to rest? One can only hope, but it is worth noting they are undefeated since this photo!
Arkansas scratched and clawed their way to wins in Buffalo over Vermont and New Mexico State, which weren’t super inspiring after losing in the SEC tournament to A&M but the way they beat Gonzaga was all I needed to see to take their spread today. Sure, Duke’s offense is deep, but after watching the Hogs hold the best offense in the country to 68 while forcing 15 turnovers I believe in them to give a very young Duke team fits.
NBA PLAYS:
New Orleans Pelicans -6 (-115) vs. Spurs 1u
The New Orleans Pelicans, still without Zion, have actually been…kinda good??? Well, at least since the all-star break where they’ve gone 8-6, averaged over 119 points per game and managed to hold onto that Western conference nine-seed. They’re not just winning either, they’re covering too, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6. The addition of C.J. McCollum has been huge for this Pelicans team with him playing the best basketball of his life (26.1 ppg, 6.6 apg, 4.9 rpg) to fill the (rather large) void left by Zion.
The Spurs on the other hand are struggling to find any sort of consistency in their quest to make the play in (2 games behind the 10th seeded Lakers), despite winning two straight. Actually, the Spurs have been unable to string together 3 consecutive wins since late December and I don’t expect them to break that tonight. Gregg Popovich’s squad just lost to the Pelicans by 33 (!!) at home a week ago and now travel to New Orlean’s where the Pels are 8-3-1 ATS as home favorites this year.
Nets ML (-195)/Grizzlies ML (-127) MONEYLINE PARLAY (+172) .75 units
The 2-team NBA moneyline parlay has become my new 3-team NFL teaser (MereKat faithful know!) and this is what I’m running with today. Both teams I like to win outright but refuse to give out because of high odds (actually -127 for Memphis is totally fine but I LIKE JUICE).
The Nets are in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff seeding battle currently going on and are just 3 games back of that coveted six-seed the Cavs currently hold. They go up against the East’s top seed, and my favorite team to bet on, the Miami Heat in South Beach tonight. Sure, I’m a bit scared of fading my beloved Heat at home but they’ve lost 5 of their last 8, including 2 straight at home and 5-7 ATS on back-to-backs. Tyler Herro is still questionable for Miami which is not good for a Heat team playing their worst basketball of the year. The Nets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games and should get a statement win tonight.
On the flip side of the Eastern conference playoff battle, the Bucks can take the top seed with a Heat loss and a win over the Grizzlies tonight which would be cool,,,EXCEPT IT’S NOT HAPPENING. With Ja Morant out and Giannia questionable (why risk it this late in the season?), this game might lack the superstar power we want, but I have more faith in these Grizzlies without their cornerstone than the Bucks. Memphis is 16-2 straight up without Ja this year and are 15-5 ATS vs. the East this season. The Bucks are frauds and the return of Khris Middleton won’t be enough to top a healthy Dillon Brooks, Desmond Bane & Co.
Lets’ ride.
You can follow me on Twitter @MereKatKat or track my plays on the Action App @MereKatKat!