BY: SOME GUY NAMED STEVE
Folks, it is officially the start of fantasy football season and I will be here all season long to help out your teams. I’ll be giving advice, predictions, analysis, and hot takes all year long so don’t miss out! For today, I am going to stick with the quarterback theme and tell you why Jalen Hurts is the quarterback you want to own this season!
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles QB)
Current Ranking: Yahoo (QB9), CBS (QB12), Fantrax (QB12) – Overall average 77th
This is for you Wake. I will not stand for the slander that Jalen Hurts got on the TWS Fantasy Football Podcast and it’s time to defend why Hurts will be a league winning pick this season.
So let’s start with what I define as a “breakout player” for quarterbacks. Since most leagues allow only one QB to be started each week, I try to target someone with a ton of upside and potential to finish top-five at the position. Although there are many lower ranked QBs that can breakthrough to top-15, even top-10, I don’t consider those breakout QBs because they still finished as a lower end starter. Currently, Hurts is being drafted as a lower ranked starter and I believe he has the upside to be a top-5 starting QB with many weeks finishing as the QB1.
First, let’s look at last year’s numbers and why I believe they were a sneak preview of what is about to come. Last season, Hurts played three full games (Weeks 14-16) and scored 19.2, 37.7, and 18.5 fantasy points in those weeks. He finished as the QB10, QB1, and QB16 in those games and had the 3rd-most points among all quarterbacks during that stretch. In the three games, Hurts threw for 282.3 yards a game and ran for 79.3 yards a game.
The sample size is tiny, but it was against very good competition and a 16-game pace last season would’ve had Hurts at 4,516 passing yards(6th-best) and 1,268 rushing yards. The rushing yards alone would’ve been 3rd-best in the NFL and best among all quarterbacks by over 250 yards! Now keep in mind that Hurts accumulated these numbers with the 19th-best offensive line and very bad WR core.
In fantasy football, rushing quarterbacks are so valuable and can put up great weeks even with sub-par passing numbers. I believe that Hurts is the second best rushing QB in the entire league behind Lamar Jackson and he will show that this year. The rushing floor alone makes Hurts one of the safest quarterbacks to take this season and I think also gives him potential to finish in the top-5. Let’s take Lamar Jackson as an example, who fantasy owners love. Last season Lamar Jackson finished as the QB8 despite throwing for over 250 yards just once. Jalen Hurts has already thrown for over 300 yards in two of his three full games while averaging more rushing yards on a per game basis than Lamar did last year. In fact, Hurts became only the second QB since 1950 to rush for over 100 yards in his first career start joining, you guessed it, Lamar Jackson. I would not be surprised in the slightest if Hurts ran for over 1,000 yards this year and even lead all quarterbacks in rushing yards. He has always been an elite running quarterback and showed that in college when he ran for 1,298 yards and 20 touchdowns his senior season.
Besides the small sample size, the biggest complaint I see about Hurts is that he was very inefficient throwing the football. That may be true to a point, but I also don’t care and you shouldn’t either. Hurts’ completion percentage last season was a miserable 52%. However, he lead all quarterbacks in yards per completion (13.8) despite having one of the worst WR cores in the NFL. I have always been under the belief that you can teach fundamentals, but you can’t teach talent. We have already seen young QBs such as Kyler Murray and Josh Allen make big leaps with efficiency from their rookie years to now and I can see Hurts doing the same thing. Hurts has elite athleticism and running ability that cannot be taught and can make a lot of tough throws. The efficiency will come with experience and for a guy who has only made four career starts, I am willing to take the risk on his low completion percentage.
This off-season the Eagles made a few moves that confirmed to me they want Hurts to be their guy. First off, they traded Carson Wentz to the Colts in exchange for two draft picks. Secondly, they spent their first-round draft pick on Alabama WR, Devonta Smith, while rookie quarterbacks Justin Fields and Mac Jones were still available. The Eagles made one thing perfectly clear, they believe in Jalen Hurts and they want him to be their quarterback of the future. It’s also worth noting that Hurts played with Smith at Alabama and they already have good chemistry. Not to mention that Smith will be by far the most talented Eagles WR on the roster this season.
So where exactly do I think Hurts will finish? Call me crazy but I can very well see Hurts finishing as a top-5 quarterback this season for a number of reasons. Hurts has one of if not the highest rushing ceiling for all QBs and I could very well see him leading all quarterbacks in rushing yards. Hurts also plays on the Eagles who have the easiest schedule in the NFL this season. Finally, Hurts has a healthy offensive line and a much better WR core with a lot of speed that includes Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, Marquise Goodwin. When I look at the ADP of quarterbacks I see Kyler Murray 35th-overall and Lamar Jackson 41st-overall while Jalen Hurts is at 77th overall. Rather than taking a QB in the third or fourth-round, you can wait and grab Hurts three rounds later and get yourself an elite running quarterback who has as much fantasy upside as any QB in the NFL. Jalen Hurts will be a league winner!
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