Folks… we’re rolling right along. College Football Week 3 is here, and the chaos is only heating up. Through two weeks, my best bets sit at 4-2 (+1.69 units) — not a monster haul yet, but we’re in the green, and that’s all we can ask for at this point in the grind. Staying ahead of the books early is a win in itself.
And once again, I’m not riding solo. Our guy Jake Majka is back in the mix with his plays, giving you a full slate of action to attack the Week 3 board.
We’re still learning who’s real and who’s smoke and mirrors, but this is where the edges pop and the market speaks. Lines are soft, narratives are overcooked, and if you know where to look, there’s money to be made.
Here are our picks for College Football Week 3.
Let’s keep stacking units, keep it weird, and keep getting paid….And Go Blue.
MEREKAT’S 1st PICK: OLE MISS vs. ARKANSAS — OVER 62.5 (-108) – 1u
Ole Miss and Arkansas both feature explosive, fast-paced offenses that piled up points last season — combining for more than 100 per game. Neither defense is elite, with Ole Miss in particular ranking near the bottom nationally in preventing big plays. This sets up a favorable script for another high-scoring affair. Three of the last four matchups between these teams have gone Over, including the 52–51 thriller in 2021, showing just how chaotic this series can get.
The betting market opened at 62.5, but advanced models project closer to 64–66, creating a cushion of 2–3 points of value. At -108, the break-even sits around 52%. While projections put the Over closer to 58–60%, giving bettors a strong expected return. Add in clear weather conditions and both sharp and public action leaning Over, and this feels like a classic SEC shootout where points come early and often to kickoff our College Football Week 3 picks!
MEREKAT’S 2nd PICK: VANDERBILT +3.5 vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (-115) – 1u
Vanderbilt comes into this SEC matchup at 2–0 and showing steady improvement. South Carolina is still searching for consistency on offense despite the preseason hype.
The line opened with South Carolina favored by a field goal, but sharp action quickly bought Vanderbilt up to +3.5, a critical number that provides extra cushion in a game expected to stay close. South Carolina’s offensive inefficiency — particularly in the red zone — makes it difficult for them to create separation. This plays right into Vanderbilt’s ability to grind out possessions and keep this within a single score.
Our College Football Week 3 model projections still give South Carolina the stronger roster overall, but Vanderbilt’s balanced approach and ability to control tempo boost their cover probability above the market’s implied odds. With public tickets leaning toward South Carolina yet bigger money landing on the Commodores, market signals show sharper bettors backing the underdog. At +3.5, Vanderbilt projects around a 52–56% chance to cover, creating positive expected value. In what should be a low-scoring divisional game, grabbing the points with an improving Vanderbilt team is the smarter side.
MEREKAT’S 3rd PICK: FLORIDA ATLANTIC +2.5 vs. FIU (-125) – 1u
Florida Atlantic enters this rivalry matchup undervalued, catching +2.5 against an FIU team they crushed 52–7 on the road last season. While FIU showed flashes with a big win over ETSU, they also surrendered 56 points to Arkansas State, exposing major holes on defense. The market originally opened closer to even, but public momentum on FIU pushed them into slight favorite status. That move feels overcooked given the Owls’ dominance in last year’s meeting and their proven ability to control tempo when the run game gets rolling.
At +2.5, FAU benefits from a critical field-goal cushion in what projects as a tightly contested matchup. Projections rate this game nearly 50/50, yet sharper money has landed on the Owls despite the majority of tickets backing FIU — a strong signal that professionals see value on the dog. If FAU can limit FIU’s passing attack and establish their ground game early, they have a real shot to not only cover but win outright. In a rivalry game hihglighting College Football Week 3 with plenty of volatility, the Owls +2.5 offer sneaky value as a live underdog.
JAKE’S 1st PICK: Ohio +30.5 at Ohio State (-118) – 2u
This line is disrespectful to the Bobcats. They lost by 3 points at Rutgers week 1, beat West Virginia at home week 2 and have proven they can play with the big schools. Ohio State is still an unknown. The offense was pedestrian against Texas and then they blew out HBCU Grambling.
The Bobcats have belief in themselves, there will be a healthy contingent of fans making the 1 hour trek from Athens to Columbus and Buckeye fans are looking ahead to Big Ten play. I expect a close game at halftime before the Buckeyes ultimately win, but don’t cover.
JAKE’S 2nd PICK: Georgia -3.5 @ Tennessee (-112) – 2u
Since Kirby Smart has taken over Georgia, they are 8-1 against Tennessee and have won the last 8 matchups. The average margin of victory in those games is 24.9 points. Don’t overthink this. Georgia dominates Tennessee in the trenches and controls this one handily.
JAKE’S 3rd PICK: Florida +6.5 @ LSU (-122) – 1u
Are we sure LSU is good? The week 1 win at Clemson doesn’t look as impressive after Clemson struggled with Troy last week. And LSU had their own struggles, only defeating Louisiana Tech at home 23-7. The offense had much higher hopes this year than they’ve shown so far – will that change Saturday night in Death Valley?
Meanwhile, Florida is coming off a disappointing loss in the final seconds to South Florida (which I called the South Florida cover last week thank you very much), but maybe South Florida is just good? They could win the American and are a physical team and it was a classic look ahead spot. I don’t have the confidence to pick a ML win for Florida here but I think this game comes down to the wire and could go either way. Take the points in this College Football Week 3 feature.
There it is — our best bets for College Football Week 3, with Jake Majka once again joining to double the firepower.
Through two weeks, we’re sitting at 4-2 (+1.69 units), and while it might not seem huge, staying in the green is exactly where we want to be this early in the season. The edges are starting to reveal themselves, and we’re locking in on spots where the market is still a step slow.
Some lines are sharp, some are overcooked, and a few are flat-out traps — but we’ve built out a slate of plays we genuinely like for today.
Appreciate you riding with us. Big thanks to Jake for running it back with the squad this week — let’s stack more wins, make some money, and keep pushing this thing forward.
Bet smart. Bet bold. Let’s ride.
Make sure to checkout Trainwreck Sport’s College Football Show – Not Here To Play School – hosted by Jake Majka, for all your college football news!
MereKat’s 2025 NCAAF Betting Record: 4-2 +1.69 Units
Week 1 Best Bet Results: 2-1 +0.78 Units
NAVY -41.5 vs. VMI (-120) – 1u: WIN +0.83 Units
UCONN -28.5 vs. CCSU (-105) – 1u: WIN +0.95 Units
INDIANA -23.5 vs. Old Dominion (-108) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Week 2 Best Bet Results: 2-1 +0.91 Units
BAYLOR +2.5 vs. SMU (-102) – 1u: WIN +0.98 Units
OHIO +3.5 vs. West Virginia (-108) – 1u: WIN +0.93 Units
NAVY -21 vs. UAB (-110) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Week 3 Best Bet Results:
Jakes’s 2025 NCAAF Betting Record: 2-3 -1.26 Units
Week 2 Best Bet Results: 2-3 -1.26 Units
TEXAS TECH -48.5 vs. Kent State (-115) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
ILLINOIS -2.5 vs. Duke (-112) – 1u: WIN +0.89 Units
WEST VIRGINIA -3.5 vs. Ohio (-102) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
SOUTH FLORIDA +18.5 vs. Florida (-118) – 1u: WIN +0.85 Units
MICHIGAN +4.5 vs. Oklahoma (-105) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Week 3 Best Bet Results:
Follow @MereKatKat & Trainwreck Sports on X for more content
Check out out latest blogs!
