Folks… it’s back. The first real College Football Saturday is officially here and it finally feels real. The helmets are cracking, the fight songs are blaring, and our Saturdays are booked for the forseeable future. Nothing like Week 1 — full of hope, hype, and the sweet smell of bad decisions.
Now, we’re not going full send just yet. It’s early. We’re still figuring out who’s for real and who’s just wearing a good jersey. But today? We lean into the chaos. The board is littered with massive lines we’d normally avoid — but not in Week 1. This is the tune-up massacre window where the big dogs let loose and run it up on the little guys.
Here are my three favorite plays. Let’s get weird. Let’s get paid. And Go Blue.
PICK 1: NAVY -41.5 vs. VMI (-120)
We’re riding with Navy –41.5 today because this has all the signs of a classic early-season smash spot. The public is fading the big number, but we’re happy to step in the other direction. VMI isn’t just outmatched—they’re a full-blown punching bag coming off a brutal 1–11 campaign where they regularly gave up 50+ points.
Navy, on the other hand, enters with momentum, pedigree, and a disciplined system that dominates mismatched opponents like this. The Midshipmen are being hyped by analysts to start strong in 2025, and predictive models project a multi-score beatdown. Line movement also supports the favorite, with books holding firm at –41.5. If you’re ever going to lay a huge number, this is the kind of Week 1 mismatch you do it on.
PICK 2: UCONN -28.5 vs. CCSU (-105)
We’re laying the points with UConn –28.5 because this is a total mismatch from the jump. The public is scared off by the big number, but we’re happy to fade that and back a UConn team with real momentum. They’re coming off a breakout season, returning key pieces on both sides of the ball, and have added depth through the portal to bulk up the front seven and solidify their identity. Meanwhile, CCSU is stepping up from the FCS ranks and simply doesn’t have the size or speed to hang.
This is a classic Week 1 setup—an FBS team with real expectations facing a glorified tune-up game, with line movement suggesting sharp confidence behind the Huskies to cover comfortably. UConn is looking to make a statement early, and this is the perfect stage to do it.
PICK 3: INDIANA -23.5 vs. Old Dominion (-108)
We’re backing Indiana –23.5 today because this is the official launch of the Fernando Mendoza campaign. The Hoosiers’ QB is being talked about as a legit top‑5 pick in next year’s NFL Draft, and this is where he starts turning heads. Indiana is coming off a breakout year, loaded with momentum, and Mendoza is surrounded by enough talent to light up the scoreboard early and often.
Meanwhile, Old Dominion is simply overmatched in the trenches and lacks the firepower to keep up if Indiana hits stride. The public is fading the number, but this feels like one of those statement games—you don’t just win, you put your star on the map. We’re expecting more show out than show rust, and Mendoza to be the headline by the final whistle.
There ya have it — MereKat’s best bets for Week 1 of college football (which should honestly be a national holiday over Labor Day, let’s be real).
Look, I hate big spreads. I do. But if I’m ever gonna take ’em, it’s this week. We’re fading the absolute life out of the public and riding with big programs stacked with big-time players looking to start their cases for awards and the NFL Draft today. Expect to see more show out than show rust.
We’re in Week 1 ourselves, folks — shaking off the cobwebs, but locked in. Bet responsibly… but god damn do I love these plays. Let’s ride.
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