We’re back at it after starting the season strong — yesterday’s blog picks went 2-1, 2-2 overall, and we’re already up units while shaking off the degenerate cobwebs early. Tonight, all eyes turn to a divisional clash under the lights: the Chiefs vs Chargers in Brazil (Brasil?).
In this best bets breakdown, we’ve locked in three plays that stand out based on sharp action, line movement, what the market is saying & matchup edges. From spread value to rushing props to a high-upside touchdown scorer, these bets combine real stats with betting market signals to put us in the best position heading into this AFC West showdown.
Los Angeles Chargers +3 (-105) – 1 UNIT
The Chiefs vs Chargers rivaryl is reaching a boiling point for on side. The Chiefs have beaten the Chargers seven straight times, with six of the seven meetings being single-digit victories. Their tight history of games makes the point-gap underdog a good wager, especially on neutral soil in Brazil.
Keep in mind that public punters have gone hard on Kansas City, where 75% of spread tickets have the Chiefs -3 but roughly 84% of the action has the Chargers +3. Such a difference indicates wider (sharp) bets looking towards L.A., possibly by virtue of the very close series and the belief that Justin Herbert & Co. can make it a game come the end of the day.
Folks are downplaying the very real chance that the Chiefs take a backward step this season, while the Chargers look like a top-10 NFL team with a stud QB, an arsenal of playmakers, and one of the savviest coaches in the game.
LA +3 offers value in what could be another down-to-the-wire AFC West game.
Najee Harris Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts – 1 UNIT
We can expect the Chargers to deploy a running-based game plan, taking advantage of both their rookie and veteran running backs. Coach Harbaugh’s scheme depends on the ground game – last year, despite having an experienced lead back, the secondary RB still logged ≥7 carries in each of the final three games. Harris, who comes to L.A., has averaged over 1,000 rushing yards across his first four NFL seasons and remains one of the most underrated backs in the league.
He should get meaningful snaps coming out of rookie Omarion Hampton. Hampton will start the game, but he hasn’t deserved a bell-cow role quite yet, so the Chargers will presumably rotate backs. Also, I am disregarding the Najee’s eye injury as a non-factor – as a blind man myself, I’m an expert.
With the résumé of Harris and a subsequent 35–40% share of snaps, more than 6.5 rush attempts is very achievable. A 7+ carry effort is well within reach, despite Omarion Hampton being named the starter.
Quentin Johnston Anytime Touchdown (+360) – .25 UNIT
Quentin Johnston is a sneaky touchdown scorer to target at long odds in this Chiefs vs Chargers matchup. The second-year wideout is expected to play around 80% of offensive snaps for Los Angeles, and he led the team last season in touchdown receptions (8) and red-zone targets.
At 6’4″ with elite leaping ability, Johnston is built to be a prime end-zone threat, especially if Kansas City’s defense shifts its attention toward rookie Ladd McConkey. The Chiefs’ secondary showed cracks late last year, allowing 19 receiving touchdowns to wideouts (26th in the NFL), and Johnston was one of those receivers to capitalize — he scored against Kansas City last December.
With Justin Herbert looking his way in red-zone situations, Johnston has a strong chance to cash this prop. At +360, the price offers excellent statistical value given his role, usage, and scoring history in this rivalry.
2025 NFL Betting Record: 2-2 +0.36 Units
WEEK 1 BEST BETS:
Cowboys +8.5 (-105) – 1 Unit: WIN +0.95 Units
CeeDee Lamb Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – 1 Unit: WIN +0.91 Units
Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+275) – 0.5 Unit: LOSS -0.50 Units
George Pickens Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – 1 Unit: LOSS -1.00 Units
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