In Thursday night’s 23-19 loss to the Houston Texans, the Buffalo Bills turned the football over three times and failed to force a turnover.
Turning the football over is nothing new for Buffalo. In the past three weeks, Buffalo has lost the turnover battle in each game, giving the ball away nine different times—five interceptions and four fumbles.
In all four losses, the Bills have lost the turnover battle. In the defeats, Buffalo has logged 11 giveaways, while forcing five takeaways. On the season, the Bills have a -2 turnover differential, rank 18th in turnover margin, and have turned the ball over the fifth most*.
According to Yahoo Sports, teams that win the turnover battle in a game win about 78% of the time. Being -3 in turnover differential in a game (just like the Bills on Thursday night) gave the Bills approximately a 91.4% chance to lose, according to Yahoo Sports’ turnover study.
A season ago, Buffalo gave the football away just eight times all season and led the NFL in a +24 turnover differential. In four of the Bills’ last six seasons, they have also ranked in the top 10 of the league in turnover differential.
Offensively, Buffalo has also seen a more than 20% dip in fourth-down conversion rate this season, thus creating more turnover on downs, and now sits 16th in the league for conversion rate.
This historic success the Bills have had with the turnover margin has run dry, or at the bare minimum, slowed down this season. Defensively, the Bills sit on pace to finish with 20 takeaways this season—12 fewer than last season. Offensively, they have already surpassed their giveaway total from last year in 11 games.
Turnover differential can often be very volatile and unpredictable from year to year. Unfortunately for the Bills, turnover regression is evident on both sides of the football.
In wins this season, Buffalo sits 5-1 when winning the turnover battle. If the Bills want to turn it around down the stretch, they must take better care of the football.
*Stats subject to change with teams playing Sunday and Monday.
Photo courtesy: buffalobills.com