The narratives this week from Buffalo Bills fans have ranged from “this game will always be important” to “it doesn’t matter what happens in this game” so I’m here to present a 3rd side. Win a football game. 

We’ve become too wrapped up in what the Bills will look like in January and it’s warping people’s brains on what the journey of a NFL season looks like. 

The Bills host the Chiefs on Sunday. The rest of NFL fans treat this like a yearly (sometimes 2x a year) football holiday at this point. It’s no surprise that CBS will bring NFL Today on site at Orchard Park, or that this game is the only one kicking off in the 4:25 ET window or that the league stuck it at the start of November right in the middle of the season. This is your mid-season finale. For better or worse, the 2020’s so far will be remembered as the decade of the Bills and Chiefs. 

We’re on the wrong side of that right now. 

So I get it! I get the trepidation around this game. I understand not wanting to get your hopes up if Buffalo does beat Kansas City, because in years past all that’s meant is that Kansas City returns the favor when it matters most, in the playoffs. 

But this is sports. This is the NFL. The goal is to win the football games the schedule makers put in front of you. Forget all the national media noise. Forget all the past traumas. The Bills and Chiefs both need this game. It’s not a “must-win”, but it’s a game neither can really afford to lose in their current position. 

The Bills are chasing the Patriots in the division. The Chiefs are chasing the Broncos. It’s uncharted territory. 

Let’s get into what the game will look like. For the Bills to get a victory Sunday, and as much as fans would love for this offense to just unleash Josh Allen and unlock something in the passing game – the key to victory is old school, smashmouth football. And luckily for the Bills, they are one of the best teams in the league at that. 

The defensive struggles for Buffalo are well known and with the injury to Ed Oliver, they lose their best pass rusher and a force multiplier for the defensive line. The secondary looked better with Poyer/Hancock/Hairston getting snaps, but Mahomes and his WRs are a completely different animal. The pass rush has to be effective without Oliver. Hoecht was a welcome addition, and will need to replicate his impact on the game this week. 

So with the defense being the biggest question mark heading into the matchup, the Bills need to lean into their fastball, which is James Cook. 

That’s not to say Allen will have another poor performance or that he can’t get on track. But it’s hard to imagine without Josh Palmer that this WR room will all of a sudden break out. Allen also has lacked confidence and trust in both scheme and WRs the last few weeks. He’s been out of rhythm and I’m not here to assess who’s to blame, but it’s just a fact. 

They aren’t going to overhaul the offense ahead of this week so while I expect some improvement from the passing game and Allen specifically, the way to win this game is to control the clock, win the trenches and keep Mahomes off the field. The Bills are finally equipped to do that as well as anyone else. 

If the defense can create a turnover or two, and the Bills can be efficient on offense turning those opportunities into touchdowns, they can win this game. If they let Mahomes free wheel and get the intermediate passing game going, it could be a long afternoon in Western New York. 

Run the ball. Possess the ball. Win the trenches. 

Win a football game. Remember what we’re here for Bills fans. Don’t get caught up in the narratives. It’s week 9. Your biggest rival is in your house. The country will be watching en masse. 

Go win a football game. Go Bills. 

Prediction 

Bills 23, Chiefs 20