The first Sunday of NFL football is finally here, folks. We’ve had our preseason. We’ve had Thursday and Friday night football. We’re tuned up, we’re greased up, & we’re ready to fire away. I’ve been holed up in the MereKat Cave for the last week analyzing the numbers, taking the pulse of the market, and aligning myself with sharp money’s itinerary to bring you my Week 1 Best Bets for the long anticipated Opening Sunday of NFL Football.
This isn’t gut instinct and positive vibes alone — it’s a marriage of matchup edges, value on the board at the proposition level, and betting indicators that we do.
Enough chit chat, it’s time ot stack some units.
Buffalo Bills +1.5 vs. BAL (-110) – 1u
Buffalo comes into Week 1 as a rare home underdog — and that alone should turn some heads. The Ravens opened as 2-point favorites, but sharp money quickly pushed the line toward even, settling near a split. That’s not public noise — that’s respected action backing the Bills.
Derrick Henry has had his moments against Buffalo in the past, but this isn’t a walkover spot. The Bills’ front four is built for matchups like this. And on the other side, Josh Allen has the arm and the home crowd to go punch-for-punch in what’s shaping up to be a high-energy primetime showdown.
From a betting perspective, Buffalo is undervalued. At +1.5, the implied win probability is around 49%, but most projection models put it closer to 60% — a strong +EV signal. Now factor in that nearly 90% of the moneyline handle is on Baltimore while the spread is moving toward Buffalo. That’s a textbook sharp split.
Translation? The smart bet is Buffalo — either with the points or small sprinkles on the +105 moneyline. I’m betting with my brain and not my heart here I swear! Unless Josh Allen trips on the rubber mat coming out of the tunnel, all signs point to the Bills covering and winning outright.
New Orleans Saints +6.5 vs. ARI (-110) – 1u
The Cardinals came in riding a wave of public money, jumping from -4.5 to -6.5 thanks to sustained action from casual bettors. That’s a massive two-point move across key numbers — and it sets up the perfect contrarian opportunity. The Saints aren’t getting the same media buzz, but they’re at home, inside the dome, with a defense that travels. They’re not folding here.
Spencer Rattler steps in as the new QB1. He’s unproven, sure, but he doesn’t need to do too much. Just avoid big mistakes and keep the offense on schedule. With that, the Saints have more than enough to compete against Arizona’s tight end-heavy, run-first attack.
From a betting perspective, this number looks inflated. At +6.5, the implied cover probability is around 52%, but most models have it closer to 58% — a solid edge in a tight market. The splits back it up: nearly 90% of the moneyline handle is on Arizona, yet sharp bettors are backing New Orleans against the spread.
Outside of minor injury concerns on the Saints’ O-line, the setup is clean. This is a classic scenario: fade the public steam, take the home dog, and trust the Saints to keep it within a touchdown.
Giants/Commanders Under 45.5 (-108) – 1u
Giants–Commanders shapes up like one of those early-season divisional grinders where points are hard to come by. Washington wants to establish the run with Jayden Daniels leading Kliff Kingsbury’s revamped offense, and while the Giants made some offseason upgrades, their run defense — which struggled last year — still carries question marks. On the other side, the Giants are starting Russell Wilson. He brings veteran stability, but he’s not the same dynamic playmaker he once was, and he’ll be up against a Commanders defense that knows how to disrupt.
The history backs it up, too — both matchups last season finished in the low 40s and were decided by a single score. All signs point to another tight, low-scoring battle.
From a betting standpoint, there’s a modest but meaningful edge on the under. The total opened around 46 and has quietly ticked down to 45.5, despite a majority of public tickets leaning over — a clear sign that sharp money is backing the under. Vegas projections cluster around 44 points, reinforcing the edge. Early-season divisional games also tend to skew conservative, and with no weather factors in play, expect both teams to lean on the ground game and avoid unnecessary risk.
Tank Bigsby Longest Rush Over 10.5 Yards (-112) – 1u
Tank Bigsby is set up perfectly for one of those “one-and-done” cashes — where you don’t need volume, just a crease. With new OC Liam Coen bringing a more balanced approach to Jacksonville’s offense, Bigsby is expected to get a steady chunk of early-down work alongside Travis Etienne. The matchup? Ideal. Carolina’s run defense got gashed last season, allowing the second-most yards before contact in the league. And that plays right into Bigsby’s strength: finishing with power once he’s through the line.
Even if he only sees 8–10 carries, it just takes one well-blocked lane to break off 11+ yards and clear this number.
From a betting angle, the edge is real. The prop sits at 10.5 with slight juice to the over, and projection models give him about a 59% chance to hit it — with a median outcome closer to 13 yards. That’s a strong +EV spot, especially in a game where Jacksonville is favored and likely to lean on the run late.
Lamar Jackson Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts (+115) – 1u
This matchup sets up for Lamar to win with his arm — not his legs. Buffalo’s defense under Sean McDermott is built to contain mobile quarterbacks, flooding the field with zone looks that discourage scrambles and force quick, underneath throws. Now with Derrick Henry in the backfield, the Ravens finally have a true workhorse to lean on, removing the need to dial up designed runs for Lamar.
The history backs it up: in two meetings with Buffalo last season, Lamar finished with exactly six carries each time — no matter the game script. And Week 1 isn’t the time for Baltimore to risk their franchise QB taking unnecessary hits. All signs point to a more restrained rushing workload.
From a betting perspective, the value is on the under. The prop sits at 7.5 carries with plus money attached. That gives you implied odds of less than 47%, but most projections have Lamar at 7 or fewer rushes roughly 55% of the time — a solid 8–9% edge. Public money is chasing the over because of his dual-threat reputation, but the matchup and data say otherwise.
Unless the game completely flips script, expect Henry to handle the ground game while Lamar works a weakened Buffalo secondary through the air. Getting the hook at +115 makes this a smart, contrarian play worth a smaller but confident stake.
FAVORITE ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORERS:
We’re going to track these separately from the Best Bets
Tee Higgins (+130) – 0.25u
TreVeyeon Henderson (+130) – 0.25u
Mark Andrews (+285) – 0.25u
2025 NFL Best Bets Record: 7-5 +2.20 Units
WEEK 1 BEST BETS:
Cowboys +8.5 (-105) – 1u: WIN +0.95 Units
CeeDee Lamb Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – 1u: WIN +0.91 Units
Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+275) – 0.5u: LOSS -0.50 Units
George Pickens Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-105) – 1u: WIN +0.95 Units
Najee Harris Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-105) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Quentin Johnston Anytime Touchdown (+360) – 0.25u: WIN +0.90 Units
New Orleans Saints +6.5 vs. ARI (-110) – 1u: LOSS -1.00 Units
Giants/Commanders Under 45.5 (-108) – 1u: WIN +0.93 Units
Tank Bigsby Longest Rush Over 10.5 Yards (-112) – 1u: LOSS – 1 Units
Lamar Jackson Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts (+115) – 1u: WIN +1.15 Units
Buffalo Bills +1.5 vs. BAL (-110) – 1u: WIN +0.91 Units
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