The NFL season kicks off tonight with a marquee rivalry as the Dallas Cowboys take on the Philadelphia Eagles, and bettors are zeroing in on every angle. In this Cowboys vs Eagles best bets breakdown, we highlight three top plays that stand out based on what the market is saying, line movement, and matchup analytics. From spread value to player props and touchdown scorers, these bets combine statistical trends with betting market insights to give you the strongest positions heading into opening night.
Cowboys +8.5 (-105) – 1 Unit
This divisional line’s been on a bender—jumped from Eagles -7 to -8.5 after the public hammered Philly and that Micah Parsons trade hit the wire. Everyone and their dog’s on the Eagles—about 63% of the bets are backing them to cover—but the sharps? They’re eyeing the bloated number and grabbing Dallas at +8.5. Cowboys tickets are light, around 37%, but they’re pulling in close to half the dough (43–47% at some spots). That’s the classic “fewer bets, more money” play.
History’s on the side of the big road dogs in Week 1—teams catching +6.5 or more are 25-12 against the spread since 2016. And Dak? Guy’s money when no one believes in him—4-1 ATS when he’s catching +7 or more. Hurts, on the other hand, kinda folds under the weight of expectations—just 6-11 ATS when he’s laying a touchdown or more.
Now Dak’s healthy, he’s got weapons—CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens in the mix—and this ain’t gonna be the blowout the books are bracing for. Eagles might still win, sure, but +8 or +8.5 in a heated rivalry game? That’s value, baby. Don’t overthink it—this one’s tighter than the market’s giving it credit for.
CeeDee Lamb Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – 1 Unit
Look, this one’s screaming volume. Whenever Dak’s under center, Lamb eats—last season in games Dak started, he averaged over 10 targets and 82+ yards. This line at 71.5? Feels like a gift. Dak missed both Eagles games last year, but he’s back now, and Dallas is staring down the barrel as an 8.5-point dog. You know what that means—air it the hell out. The run game’s shaky, so we’re talking 40+ pass attempts easy.
Yeah, Philly had the top pass D last year, but that secondary ain’t what it was. Slay’s out, their No.2 corner behind White Boy Wonder is a tossup, and Lamb is the clear alpha in this offense—101 catches, nearly 1,200 yards last season, and now he’s got no choice but to go nuclear.
Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+275) – 0.5 Unit
If you’re hunting for a plus-money prop with some real upside, take a look at the Cowboys’ young tight end. Ferguson steps into the starting role, and the matchup quietly plays to his strengths. Philadelphia’s linebacker group thins out quickly after Zack Baun, and late last season, they consistently struggled to contain tight ends. In fact, they gave up six touchdowns to the position over their final 10 games, playoffs included.
At +275, there’s real value here, with the Eagles’ secondary likely zeroed in on Dallas’ top wideouts, Ferguson slipping behind the defense off play-action or a busted coverage is well within reason. It’s a high-upside shot that targets one of Philly’s few defensive vulnerabilities—tight end coverage.
I am also a sicko anf for transparency I also am on the Pickens Over for Receiving Yards too (1 Unit).
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